The “energy partnership” with Russia: lessons from the past, dangers for the future

At this time the lure patiently constructed by Moscow towards Europe for 20 years is closing. Russia has by no means hidden its want to abuse its dominant place within the power market to realize its international coverage aims. Panicked Europeans are struggling like flies caught in a spider’s internet. How did we get right here?

One should return to the Soviet interval to grasp and to see the political implications of what Russia is establishing on the European continent. Soviet leaders from Lenin and Stalin onwards had undertaken to construct a unified financial system based mostly on the dependence of the republics of the USSR on the central energy. “Comrade Stalin rightly stated that whoever has the oil has the ability”, Kirov declared on the XIV Get together Congress (Quoted in: N.A. Efimov, “Sergej Mironovič Kirov”, Voprosy istorii, n°11, 1995, p. 58). With this in thoughts, the Kremlin developed a community of built-in gasoline and oil pipelines with the Russian Soviet Republic at its heart. The pipelines ran from oil and gasoline fields in Soviet republics corresponding to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to Russia, from the place gasoline and oil was redistributed or bought to Europe, the Soviet Union’s principal power export market. In return, the Soviet republics obtained sponsored gasoline. After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow did all the pieces it might to protect these “staples’’. Since Putin got here to energy, the Kremlin has developed a persistent coverage of extending this Russian-centric community to the entire of Europe.

Is Gazprom a dependable companion?

Russia has rarely hidden its willingness to weaponize gasoline and oil to realize its international coverage aims, primarily in its rapid neighbourhood but in addition additional afield. In 1990, the Gorbachev USSR slapped Lithuania with an power embargo when the republic’s parliament declared its independence. After a gasoline cut-off in September 1993, Leonid Kuchma, the president of Ukraine, needed to settle for the cancellation of the gasoline debt in alternate for permitting Russia to maintain a lot of the Black Sea fleet in Ukrainian Crimea. In 1998 and 1999 alone, the Russian oil producer Lukoil minimize crude oil deliveries to the Lithuanian refinery in Mažeikiai at the least 9 instances. Seemingly industrial motives are used to legitimize gasoline worth and/or provide manipulations that in lots of circumstances are decided extra by geopolitics than by company profitability considerations. One professional has recognized some 40 politically motivated Russian energy cuts between 1991 and 2004.

What has been known as the “pipeline constructing frenzy” started in 2001 and has continued since. Russia has constructed a gasoline pipeline to Finland that gives 100% of Finnish consumption. We are able to add Nord Stream 1 and a pair of; the Beltransgaz pipeline, which controls the movement of just about 1 / 4 of the gasoline exported from Russia to the European Union by way of the territory of Belarus by way of the Yamal-Europe pipeline; the Ukrainian pipelines, which make sure the transit of Russian gasoline to a number of European international locations; South Stream and Blue Stream, which join Russia to Turkey. International consultants have been astonished by this profusion of pipes, whose export capability far exceeded the volumes delivered by Gazprom, as they didn’t perceive that Moscow’s goal was to create a state of affairs the place gasoline may very well be directed to this or that nation by determination of the Kremlin, in accordance with political concerns. The underutilization of those pipelines was deliberate from the start.

However issues received worse since 2005, after the signing of the settlement with Germany for the development of Nord Stream 1. Russia started to overtly brandish the power weapon, closing the gasoline faucets to insubordinate international locations, main the others to surrender ever higher elements of their sovereignty in alternate for reductions within the gasoline invoice. After the “Orange Revolution”, President Yushchenko’s Ukraine was pressured to pay 220 to 230 {dollars} for 1,000 cubic meters of gasoline (in comparison with 50 {dollars} beforehand), whereas Belarus, at the least till the re-election of President Lukashenko, saved its preferential price (46.7 {dollars}/1,000 cubic meters) after being coerced in March 2004 to open its Beltransgaz consortium, the Belarusian gasoline community, to Gazprom: in February 2004 Russia had interrupted its gasoline deliveries to Belarus to pressure it to convey Gazprom into the Beltransgaz consortium. In April 2006 Gazprom put Lukashenko towards the wall: both Gazprom will get full management of Beltransgaz or Belarus must purchase its gasoline at market costs from 2007 (in 2011 Gazprom will grow to be 100% proprietor of Beltransgaz renamed Gazprom Transgaz Belarus). From 2006-7, the pet thought of Russian international coverage is to take management of power infrastructures overseas. Putin promised his international companions an entry to Russian oil fields, however provided that the distribution networks have been handed over to Russia.

When Russian oil deliveries to the Czech Republic dropped on July 9, 2008, Moscow cited technical causes. However for the Czechs the Kremlin was clearly expressing its discontent after the Czech Republic’s latest determination to host the brand new American anti-missile radar system. At the least three of the manipulations in gasoline provides have brought about deep systemic disruptions in Europe; particularly, in January 2009, Gazprom’s gasoline cut-off to punish Ukraine for its assist for Georgia throughout the Russian-Georgian warfare, utilizing Ukraine’s gasoline debt as a pretext, brought about strain to fall as far west as France and compelled companies and faculties in southeastern Europe to close down in a bitter chilly. In lower than every week in late March and early April 2014, after pro-Russian Yanukovych fled, Gazprom raised the value of gasoline exports to Ukraine from $268.5 per 1,000 m³ to $485. From 2014 to 2015, Russia tried to chop off Slovak, Hungarian and Polish provides to forestall contracted Russian gasoline from being bought again to Ukraine by way of the reverse movement. The Europeans’ gasoline dependence on Russia was already ample to forestall them from introducing strict sanctions focusing on the Russian power sector after the annexation of Crimea and the intervention in japanese Ukraine.

Precedents additionally point out that as quickly as Russia feels able of energy, it takes benefit of it to crush even its most docile companion: thus, in 2006, when Armenia made the error of authorizing Russia’s buy of the Armenia-Iran gasoline pipeline, closing Armenia to any various provide, Moscow abruptly elevated the value of gasoline, plunging Armenia’s financial system into a long-lasting disaster. This could give Europeans specific pause right now. Political docility is not going to make their Russian provider extra accommodating if he’s in a monopoly place.

The coup de grâce to the European Union?

Studying Russian analyses, one realizes that Moscow sees yet one more alternative within the present power disaster. The Kremlin hopes to sow discord between European international locations by placing them in competitors with one another to acquire Gazprom’s favours. The necessary factor is to destroy the core of Central European solidarity. Hungary and Gazprom have simply signed a contract to provide 4.5 billion m³ of gasoline per yr for the following 15 years. Of this, 3.5 billion will undergo Serbia, 1 billion by way of Austria. For the primary time in historical past, gasoline from Russia shall be provided to Hungary bypassing Ukraine. Furthermore, Kiev dangers being disadvantaged of the potential of shopping for gasoline in reverse, it must provide itself in Russia. For Moscow the operation is all revenue: the asphyxiation of Ukraine is now full, the relations between Hungary and the European Fee are deteriorating much more. The Kremlin is already contemplating repeating this operation with Slovakia, even when Gazprom is obliged to grant important reductions to this nation so as to take action. Moscow additionally hopes to play off the Latvians and Estonians towards the Lithuanians, who want to boycott electrical energy imports from Belarus altogether. Because the Soviet period, there was an power ring, the BRELL (Belarus – Russia – Estonia – Lithuania – Latvia), which unites the power techniques of those 5 states. The Baltic states used to purchase electrical energy from each Russia and Belarus. The Lithuanian determination to restrict imports from Belarus has raised tensions with Latvia and Estonia, which the Kremlin intends to take advantage of.

However extra broadly talking, the prospect of financial chaos in Europe because of the power disaster is a rosy one for Moscow; one solely has simply to have a look at the complacent descriptions of the present British turmoil within the Russian media to see it, — and allow us to recall that Russia has simply refused to promote extra coal to Europe, whereas growing by 90% its electrical energy deliveries to China. A ruined Europe would stop to be a magnet for the international locations of the previous Soviet area. The encouragement of nationwide egoism, the fostering of a warfare of all towards all to acquire Russian gasoline (additionally talked about within the Russian press with relish) will make it attainable for Russia to select every European nation one after the other, and to speed up the institution of the Kremlin’s hegemony on the Eurasian continent. Thus the European structure created from the Marshall Plan on, which was based mostly on the cooperation of Europeans amongst themselves and on the solidarity of a free Europe, is unraveling. No marvel RIA novosti is gloating: “The USA has misplaced the battle for Europe, Russia has received”.

These prospects now appear inside attain, particularly considering the disaster provoked by the creation of the AUKUS. “A attainable rapprochement between France and Russia after the perfidious coup of the AUKUS ‘triumvirate’ is inflicting a sensation in a number of European capitals, primarily in Poland, the Baltic states, Georgia and Ukraine. Paris is pushed to rapprochement with the Russians not solely by the cooling of relations with Washington, but in addition by the more and more hostile place of London… France will in the end be confronted with the need of a rapprochement with the continental bloc of states alongside the Paris-Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis. The creation of the AUKUS solely provides gasoline to the fireplace, tearing France away not solely from its ‘intimate British buddy’ but in addition from the USA.” All hopes are actually permitted: “The measures already taken by France to maneuver nearer to Russia to counterbalance the strain of London and Berlin by Paris might have surprising results.”

If we examine the state of affairs through which Europeans discover themselves right now, threatened by a critical gasoline scarcity throughout the winter, to the precedents we talked about above, we discover one factor: Russia has thrown off the masks, it now not even tries to camouflage its choices behind technical or industrial arguments. Skilled Mikhail Krutikhin just lately reported the phrases of a Gazprom adviser, who didn’t mince his phrases: “We now have chosen to make an Italian strike, i.e. we’re supplying Europe solely with gasoline underneath long-term contracts signed way back, however not with volumes of gasoline that will assist Europe forward of the winter season, and we’re doing this on goal.” The Russian press is much more specific: “Ukraine should get able to crawl [before us] to get Russian gasoline,” bluntly headlines RIA Novosti on July 28. “The unhealthy guys [i.e. the Ukrainians, the Moldovans who have just given themselves a pro-European government, the Baltics, the Poles] will freeze first”, reads the headline of one other publication, which makes no secret of the truth that Russia is relying on the chilly climate of the approaching winter to convey down all of the unbiased governments of those international locations. The brutal cynicism of Russian energy is exhibiting off with rising complacency today: “Gazprom reminds that if Moldova considers Transnistria to be its personal, it must pay $7 billion for the gasoline provided over these a long time. After which Moldova has to anticipate a large worth enhance — a yr in the past Moldova purchased gasoline at a worth of $148.87 per 1,000 cubic meters… And right now for $790, however not for lengthy. […] These prizes have been awarded to the previous rulers of Moldova. With the present authorities, the negotiations shall be performed in a unique tone, and their length will rely upon Sandu. […] So long as the events haven’t reached an settlement, Moldovagaz must provide itself at spot costs. At this price, Sandu runs the danger of ceasing to be President of Moldova earlier than the tip of the negotiations. And the US Embassy might help her solely with good phrases ”. It’s value quoting this text by Russtrat, the assume tank near the Kremlin, as a result of it shamelessly proclaims that the Russian authorities intend to make use of gasoline dependence to convey down legitimately elected presidents and substitute them with “mates of the Kremlin” who shall be entitled to a preferential price. We are able to wager that if the power disaster continues, it is going to be discreetly recommended to voters in Western Europe to vote for pro-Russian figures more likely to receive a discount within the gasoline invoice. In Germany, the Kremlin will make it clear that it’s higher to place environmentalists on the sidelines as a substitute of securing them necessary portfolios sooner or later coalition authorities. This hope shines by way of this evocative headline: “Hail to Basic Winter, who has defeated the fascist inexperienced power!” Russia overtly declares that it has a truncheon at its disposal, which it’s going to use to convey the Europeans into submission. “Russia in 2021 is efficiently implementing its idea of an ‘power superpower’: China, plunged into darkness, is demanding extra electrical energy provide, and Europe, as a result of file gasoline costs and bankrupt power firms, is demanding extra coal.”

The excellence between “close to overseas” and “Western Europe” now not exists for Russia’s leaders. All of Europe is now a “close to overseas” through which the Kremlin feels it has a place of energy. The Europeans didn’t care about the usage of Nord Stream 2 as an instrument of blackmail on Ukraine. At this time they discover themselves in the identical boat as Kiev, a lot to their indignation. Having a brief reminiscence, they’ve forgotten the most important position of Gazprom within the liquidation of media freedom in Russia. Will we think about issues shall be completely different right here? This doesn’t forestall numerous French politicians of the appropriate and the left from fantasizing today a couple of “reverse alliance” with Russia. Are they blind to the immense energy machine deployed by Russia towards Europe for the previous 20 years, or are they pushed by the resurgent dream of collaboration with a “sturdy state” led by a Führer, like many intellectuals on the left and proper within the Nineteen Thirties? Are we witnessing in France a “rush to servitude”, to make use of Tacitus’ lovely expression?