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The EU received’t change its course even when the Russia-Ukraine battle ends, claims Valdai Membership program director Ivan Timofeev
The intensive sanctions positioned on Moscow will almost certainly stay in place even when there’s a ceasefire or a political decision to the Ukrainian battle, considered one of Russia’s main overseas coverage analysts, Ivan Timofeev, has instructed RT. The professional was talking on the sidelines of the Saint Petersburg Worldwide Financial Discussion board on Friday.
Timofeev, who serves as this system director on the Kremlin-backed Valdai dialogue discussion board, argued that the EU was a “big vessel” that was very troublesome to show, and that as a result of it had already “turned away from Russia,” it was troublesome to think about that issues might ever return to the best way they had been earlier than February 2022, when Moscow launched its army offensive towards Ukraine.
In keeping with Timofeev, the sanctions have additionally not but taken their full impact. Whereas Russia remains to be feeling “fairly good” as oil costs have risen, Timofeev notes that it might nonetheless solely be a matter of time earlier than Moscow is confronted with issues, except it redirects its consideration to markets in Asia, particularly nations like India and China.
Gasoline, in the meantime, is a “fully completely different” topic, says the professional, since Europe can’t simply do away with Russian fuel because it has little technique of getting it elsewhere and lacks the technical capabilities of receiving liquefied fuel from nations just like the US. Nonetheless, Timofeev confused that Moscow ought to nonetheless take into consideration “strategic selections of redirecting our fuel provide on the worldwide markets,” as “coverage and politics will press the economic system within the nearest future.”
After noting that vitality cooperation between Russia and the West will seemingly be difficult for fairly a while, Timofeev additionally confused that meals safety has develop into a difficulty as worldwide companies are afraid of participating with Russia.
“Meals safety is an fascinating concern,” famous Timofeev. “In relation to Russia, sanctions are formally not overlaying the Russian exports of meals. Formally – it is a key phrase. The US Division of Treasury has even issued a normal license which permits companies to conduct monetary transactions even with sanctioned Russian individuals if these transactions are associated to meals safety – to grain or every other type of meals. Nevertheless, companies are very scared. Companies are satisfied that it’s simpler to fully abandon dealings with Russia as such, reasonably than face the enforcement of secondary sanctions from the US.”
Timofeev highlighted two main issues with the export of Russian grain – the decline of economic transactions associated to Russian grain exports, and the refusal of vessel homeowners to move the grain to nations like Egypt over the perceived menace of American sanctions.
The specialist famous that this has all resulted in a “paradoxical scenario,” the place the US Treasury is attempting to encourage companies to interact within the export of Russian grain, saying “It’s authorized, you are able to do this,” however the companies, previous experiences with US sanctions, are selecting to abstain.
Timofeev concluded by stating that the present financial disaster has proven that Russia is definitely fairly an essential participant within the worldwide economic system.
“Earlier than this disaster there had been quite a few assessments that the Russian economic system is nearly nothing within the world panorama as a result of the proportion of Russia within the world GDP is kind of tiny, lower than two p.c,” he mentioned. “However, on the similar time, for those who take a look at the truth, Russia is [the] quantity 11 economic system. However what’s extra essential is that Russia is crucial in plenty of spheres – in vitality, agriculture, meals, arms provides, and plenty of tech chains and provide chains.”
Ultimately, the fallout from the West’s sanctions towards a seemingly inconsequential nation like Russia, in line with Timofeev, turned out to be a lot greater than “their linear logic had implied earlier than.”
Nevertheless, whereas the worldwide economic system will finally get by way of this disaster, Timofeev surmised, it’s essential to know that the present points are the results of the “unintended mixture” of a large number of things and never solely the results of the continuing battle between Russia and Ukraine.
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