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The present one-dimensional “groupthink” within the Western world, disguised as a well-celebrated “united” technique towards Russia (within the Russia-Ukraine disaster), is in truth anti-Western by being “self-destructive” in making a “divisive” new world order which not solely will speed up its personal decline but additionally will create extra discord amongst nations and decrease well-being in societies all over the world.
To know this, think about the next 3 main facets of world affairs that the Western alliance has significantly miscalculated (in its excessive response to the Russia-Ukraine disaster), whereas Western mainstream mass media (e.g., CNN, BBC, FRANCE 24, DW, and others) is complicit in its every day protection (as a disinformation cheerleader).
1st Western Miscalculation: the Fallacy of Freedom in World Politics
The primary critical Western miscalculation within the Russia-Ukraine disaster is to self-gratifyingly assume that it stands for “freedom” on this planet towards “autocracy” within the East (just like the Russian invasion of Ukraine), which then licenses the Western alliance to tug the remainder of the world to its aspect with this Manichaean narrative of the world. However this Manichaean narrative backfires in 3 main methods and contributes to neither freedom nor world peace.
Within the first manner, the remainder of the world (particularly within the Non-West) doesn’t need to be a part of this geopolitical rivalry between the U.S.-led world and the Russia-led one for hegemony (as they’d already tasted the bitter dose of proxy wars within the first Chilly Battle between the U.S. and the usS.R.). Many within the Non-West in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (besides these few international locations that are a part of the Western alliance) resent the relentless stress (or coercion) by the Western alliance to tug them to its orbit and thus have to date refused to aspect with it. Certainly, fairly quite a lot of them even present sympathy to Russia which has been put in a nook by the ruthless growth of NATO into its yard and has due to this fact threatened its nationwide safety; even Pope Francis on Could 3, 2022 stated that NATO “barking” at Russia’s door “provoked” Putin and “facilitated” the invasion of Ukraine; or in another way put, think about how the U.S. would react if Canada and Mexico determined to change into new members of the Russian navy alliance. Not surprisingly, there may be now a re-emergence of the “non-alignment” motion within the Non-West (which was as soon as fashionable in the course of the first Chilly Battle when these roughly 120 international locations refused to completely aspect with the American and Soviet energy blocs), as they’re now more and more resentful in the direction of, and bored with, being compelled (with tender and exhausting energy) into taking aspect with the West within the present Russia-Ukraine disaster. As an example, Mexico and Brazil, the two largest international locations in Latin America, refuse to sentence Russia (regardless of Western stress); India and China, the two largest international locations in Asia, refuse to take aspect with the West (regardless of Western stress), and OPEC (with a lot of its rich members within the Center East) has stood agency on its oil cope with Russia and doesn’t yield to Western stress to punish Russia with extra oil manufacturing (after sanctions). And plenty of in Africa desire to be left alone and thoughts their very own enterprise (as they have already got lots to fret about with their downside of underdevelopment at dwelling), however Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni was blunt in his response to Western stress:
“Don’t threaten me, and I can’t threaten you.”
Within the second manner, the Western Manichaean narrative not solely has didn’t resolve the Russia-Ukraine disaster peacefully but additionally, to make issues worse, has escalated it into an all-out battle between the 2 sides, with the Western alliance actively sending superior weapons to, sharing intelligence with, and covertly taking part in combating (with Western fighters) in Ukraine. It more and more appears probably that Ukraine will stay a supply of proxy battle between the 2 competing energy blocs for years to come back.
Within the third manner, the Western Manichaean narrative has intensified a “hybrid” battle to “weaken” Russia, as confirmed by the U.S. Secretary of Protection Lloyd Austin on April 26, so the disaster is now remodeled into the hunt for a better “strategic” aim (totally different from its unique modest aim to make peace between Ukraine and Russia) to “weaken” Russia in any respect prices (within the title of “freedom”) within the energy competitors between East and West. This can additional contribute to a protracted attrition warfare between the 2 sides.
In these 3 ways, the Western Manichaean narrative contributes to simply the other (that’s, resentment and battle).
2nd Western Miscalculation: the Fallacy of Decoupling in World Commerce
The second critical Western miscalculation within the Russia-Ukraine disaster is to naively assume that banning commerce with Russia will cease its aggression, so the world will then stay in peace and prosperity. However this naïve commerce narrative backfires in 2 main methods and contributes to neither peace nor prosperity.
Within the first manner, banning commerce with Russia contributes to a decoupling of worldwide commerce and due to this fact to rising prices and inefficiency in international commerce. That is all of the extra critical in Europe, because it is dependent upon Russia for pure sources (like oil and fuel) with purpose, as the worldwide provide chains weren’t created yesterday and have taken a long time for the world financial system to evolve into what’s like right this moment. So to interrupt them up instantly creates 2 critical issues. First, searching for various provide chains will take a long time to realize, not one thing to be completed in a matter of days and weeks. And second, any various provide chains shall be comparatively extra pricey and inefficient, because the Western world is now desperately looking for various provides in distant locations like Africa, that are extra pricey to supply and transport to Europe, and the U.S. even goes as far as to barter (not but efficiently) with its distant foe in Latin America, particularly, Venezuela, for an alternate oil provide (whose regime the U.S. has tried for many years to overthrow).
Within the second manner, banning commerce with Russia will contribute to inflationary (and probably stagflationary) and recessionary penalties. Russia is a serious provider of pure sources and commodities (like oil, fuel, coal, minerals, wheat, corn, and so forth) to the world, so banning it (with the results of much less provides to the world) shall be inflationary (and probably stagflationary), so customers and companies will find yourself paying rather more than they need to. As well as, if financial authorities within the West (and elsewhere) intervene to tame it by increased rates of interest, there’ll probably be financial recessions in due time. Economists typically dislike inflation, stagflation, and recession, as they have a tendency to decrease residing requirements. That is all of the extra critical, when the Western world because the turbulent period of Trump has already doubled down on decoupling with China, the highest buying and selling nation on this planet and the “world’s manufacturing facility.” It’s not shocking that, within the present United States underneath Biden (who continues Trump’s populist coverage of decoupling), inflation has already reached a excessive degree unseen in additional than 40 years (partly additionally because of the COVID-19 pandemic), and plenty of economists had predicted a looming recession, because the Fed seeks to tame inflation by mountaineering rates of interest.
Thus, in these two methods, decoupling contributes to simply the other (that’s, battle and decrease residing customary).
third Western Miscalculation: the Fallacy of Sanctions in World Finance
The third critical Western miscalculation within the Russia-Ukraine disaster is to mistakenly assume that imposing huge sanctions on Russia will cripple its financial system (to discourage it from additional aggression towards its neighbors), so the world will then exist with extra concord and better well-being. However this mistaken monetary narrative backfires in 2 main methods and contributes to neither higher concord nor increased well-being.
Within the first manner, imposing huge sanctions on Russia (like freezing and confiscating Russian belongings in Western establishments) will contribute to the additional erosion of confidence within the greenback and euro in international finance, because of the disturbing incontrovertible fact that this blatantly violates worldwide legislation and is “unjust” in political-philosophical discourse, as an excessive type of state-sponsored “theft” and “theft.” Thus, there may be now an acute sense of intense anxiousness traditionally unseen in a long time within the Non-West about this Western weaponization of its currencies (just like the greenback and euro), as a ruthless type of state-sponsored “theft” and “theft” of another person’s cash (or belongings). With this nationwide urgency in thoughts, Russia now calls for the EU to pay for its fuel imports in ruble (not greenback or euro). Russia and China are actually discussing the necessity to speed up the usage of yuan and ruble (not greenback or euro) in bilateral commerce, and China and Saudi Arabia are coming near an settlement to commerce with their native currencies (not greenback or euro). As well as, India and Russia begin the discuss for a rupee-ruble cost scheme to keep away from future Western sanctions, and different international locations (like Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, and many others.) have already tried totally different mechanisms to struggle Western sanctions. Specifically, China is forward within the sport by selling digital foreign money denominated in yuan (“digital yuan”) and has already run “public trials” of digital yuan in main cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and others, earlier than institutionally implementing it throughout the board quickly.
Within the second manner, imposing huge sanctions on Russia (like banning it from the usage of SWIFT and Visa/Mastercard) will contribute to the additional decline of Western-dominated worldwide cost techniques in the long term. Once more, with this nationwide urgency in thoughts, each Russia and China now speed up the usage of their very own monetary switch techniques (like SPFS and CIPS, respectively), simply as in addition they speed up their swap to UnionPay (China’s Visa and Mastercard various), which, by Could 2022, has already unfold to 180 international locations and is accepted by greater than 50 million retailers worldwide. And Russia is speeding to implement Mir (Russia’s Visa and Mastercard various), proper after Western sanctions.
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