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If Russia and Belarus cease exporting gasoline and lubricants to Ukraine, the Ukrainian military will give up in three to 5 days.
Lukashenko voices crucial menace to Ukraine
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko warned Kiev that Minsk would cease supplying Ukraine with gasoline and lubricants (mineral gasoline, oil, refined merchandise, and many others) and electrical energy ought to Kiev provoke an aggravation with Russia.
“There is just one hazard: the Ukrainian authorities might take a really critical motion in opposition to Donetsk and Luhansk — the Donbass,” Lukashenko stated in an interview with Vladimir Solovyov.
“We’ll lower off all provides (to Ukraine), not solely gasoline and lubricants. Electrical energy provides shall be lower too. If they begin preventing in opposition to us or in opposition to Russia, then we are going to combat,” the president added. Based on him, “we, along with the Russians, provide the identical quantity of oil merchandise to Ukraine.”
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, in response to Alexander Lukashenko, stated on Tuesday, February 8, that Ukraine’s exports to Belarus had been increased than imports. Due to this fact, a mutual embargo would have an effect on folks in each international locations.
“We should always not return to the Stone Age,” Zelensky added.
Nonetheless, it’s apparent now that so as not to return to the Stone Age, one wants to alter the regime in Kiev, as the present Ukrainian regime isn’t going to cease makes an attempt to “free” Crimea and Donbass via the usage of pressure.
With the intention to do that, one doesn’t have to resort to Russian tanks or missiles. Ukraine’s dependence on gasoline provides from Russia and Belarus is so excessive that its military will be unable to maneuver after a number of days of resistance.
Ukraine’s gasoline imports account for Russia and Belarus merchandise
Based on the State Customs Service of Ukraine, in January-December 2021, the nation elevated international change spending on imports of petroleum merchandise to $5.614 billion, which was 65.1% increased than in 2020. In bodily phrases, as many as 8.79 million tons of petroleum merchandise had been imported to Ukraine over 12 months, which was 9.5% increased than a 12 months earlier.
On the identical time, imports of petroleum merchandise from Belarus amounted to $2.35 billion (41.8% of all spending on imports of petroleum merchandise), from Russia — $1.24 billion (22%), from Lithuania — $0.654 billion (11.6%), UNIAN stated.
Thus, 63% of Ukrainain imports of fuels and lubricants come from the Russian Federation and Belarus.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s dependence on imports of fuels and lubricants has been rising steadily for the final 15 years. As an alternative of six massive oil refineries that Ukraine had through the Soviet occasions, the nation has just one left right now. In 2020, Ukraine’s nationwide producers ensured solely 49% of gasoline consumption, 15% of diesel gasoline and 20% of LPG. On the identical time, the nation’s dependence on imported diesel gasoline amounted to 65%, whereas 100% of aviation kerosene was equipped by Belarus.
Ukraine’s gasoline shares will final for as much as 5 days
Based on the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, Russia’s exports to Ukraine in 2021 amounted to $8 billion 129.5 million, which was 28.8% increased than in 2020 ($6 billion 310.5 million).
Gas and lubricants exports account for greater than a 3rd of all Russian gross sales within the quantity of $1.867 billion, Nezygar Telegram channel stated.
With the annual want for gasoline and lubricants for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this determine roughly makes up 15% of the extent required to take care of fixed fight readiness.
Based on navy consultants interviewed by Nezygar, Ukraine will be unable to compensate potential restrictions in hydrocarbon gross sales — each reserve storage services of its personal and the deployment of NATO cell logistics pipeline methods won’t be potential as a result of backwardness of the navy infrastructure and the distinction in gasoline requirements.
Gas and lubricants reserves of the mechanized models of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shall be sufficient just for three or 5 days of energetic hostilities, consultants conclude. In accordance with the observe of the power neighborhood, as a way to create reserve shares of oil and petroleum merchandise, a quantity overlaying a 90-day demand is required.
Based on Putin’s official spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Kiev has been concentrating an enormous quantity of forces on the road of contact with the Folks’s Republic of Donetsk and the Folks’s Republic of Luhansk. The character of this focus speaks of preparations for offensive operations, he added.
The top of the Folks’s Republic of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, identified the presence of navy instructors from the US and the UK in Ukraine. This means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are making ready for an offensive. Pushilin additionally paid consideration to the arrival of Ukrainian and international journalists within the battle zone, “as in the event that they must report one thing.”
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