What does the Russian ultimatum to the West mean?

On December 17, the Russian International Ministry unveiled two draft texts — a “Treaty between the USA and the Russian Federation on Safety Ensures” and an “Settlement on Measures to Make sure the Safety of the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Group [NATO]”. Moscow’s said objective is to acquire “authorized safety ensures from the USA and NATO.” Moscow has requested the USA and its NATO allies to satisfy the Russian calls for directly.

“The 2 texts will not be written in keeping with the precept of a menu, the place you’ll be able to select one or the opposite, they complement one another and ought to be thought of as an entire,” declared Deputy International Minister Sergei Ryabkov. The second textual content is a type of parallel assure as a result of “the Russian International Ministry is absolutely conscious that the White Home might not meet its obligations, and subsequently there’s a separate draft treaty for NATO nations.” The Russian maneuver is to bind NATO via the USA, the USA via NATO. There’s nothing to barter, you need to settle for every little thing as an entire.

Some Russian media, such because the digital newspaper Vzglyad, are already triumphant: “The world earlier than and the world after December 17, 2021 are fully totally different worlds… If till now the USA held the entire world at gunpoint, now it finds itself below the specter of Russian navy forces… A brand new period is opening, new heroes are coming, and a brand new Danila Bagrov [character of the patriotic mobster in the popular film Brat], elevating his heavy fist and searching into the eyes of his interlocutor, asks softly once more: how robust are you, American?”

An orchestrated blackmail

The Russian blackmail is express and is directed at each the Individuals and the Europeans. If the West doesn’t settle for the Russian ultimatum, they should face “a navy and technical various”, in keeping with Deputy International Minister Alexander Grushko: “The Europeans should additionally take into consideration whether or not they wish to keep away from making their continent the scene of a navy confrontation. They’ve a selection. Both they take significantly what’s placed on the desk, or they face a military-technical various.” After the publication of the draft treaty, the opportunity of a pre-emptive strike in opposition to NATO targets (related to people who Israel inflicted on Iran), was confirmed by former Deputy Minister of Protection Andrei Kartapolov (Duma Protection Committee): “Our companions should perceive that the longer they drag out the examination of our proposals and the adoption of actual measures to create these ensures, the larger the chance that they’ll endure a pre-emptive strike.”

To make issues clear Russia fired a “salvo” of Zircon hypersonic missiles on December 24. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, commented on this occasion: “Nicely, I hope that the notes [of December 17] will likely be extra convincing”. Editorialist Vladimir Mozhegov added: “What are our arguments? Before everything, after all, our most dependable allies — the military and the navy. To be extra exact, the hypersonic Zircon missile (the “provider killer”, as it’s affectionately referred to as within the West), which makes it absurd for the USA to have a fleet of plane carriers. The impression of the Zircon cracks a destroyer like a nut. A number of Zircons will inevitably sink an plane provider. The Zircon merely does its job: it methodically shoots large, clumsy plane carriers like a gun at cans.”

An article within the digital newspaper Svpressa eloquently titled “Putin’s ultimatum: Russia, if you’ll, will bury all of Europe and two-thirds of the USA in half-hour” dots the i’s: “The Kremlin should show its place with deeds. It’s in all probability solely doable to pressure the “companions” to take a seat on the negotiating desk by coercion. Economically, the Russian Federation can’t compete with the West. There stays conflict.” Navy skilled Konstantin Sivkov believes that “to deliver the USA and NATO to the negotiating desk, some type of tremendous weapon is required. For the second, Russia doesn’t present this potential to its adversaries. Nevertheless it exists. Russia has the potential to make use of superpowered munitions with a capability of as much as 100 megatons. […] We should repeat that we’re not taken with a world with out Russia, as Putin as soon as mentioned, and display our willpower to strike if NATO expands. After that, I can guarantee you that they [the West] will likely be afraid. Nothing else can cease them. […] It’s naive to depend on diplomatic procedures. […] Russia’s transfer is a sign that already radical measures are going to be taken. You refused, so you’ll have yourselves accountable…”

What’s at stake

Studying the Western press, one is below the impression that nothing is occurring. Westerners don’t appear to know what’s at stake. They assume that solely the destiny of Ukraine is being determined, which is of much less concern to them than that of Armenia, judging by the pilgrimages of our presidential candidates. Many French officers discover it regular that Russia ought to declare a sphere of affect. They resemble those that in 1939 believed that Hitler’s calls for could be restricted to Danzig. Nonetheless, one solely has to have a look at the texts proposed by Moscow to know that the stakes are fairly totally different.

The Russian ultimatum calls for that “the next be legally established: the renunciation of any enlargement of NATO [to the east], the cessation of navy cooperation with post-Soviet nations, the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe and the withdrawal of NATO armed forces to the borders of 1997”. Russia and the USA commit themselves to not deploy nuclear weapons overseas and to withdraw these already deployed, in addition to to get rid of nuclear weapons deployment infrastructure exterior their territory. Article 4 states, partly, that “the Russian Federation and all contributors which had been, as of 27 Might 1997, member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Group, shall not deploy their armed forces and armaments on the territory of some other European state along with the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 Might 1997.” And Article 7 specifies that “the contributors, that are Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Group, shall chorus from conducting any navy actions on the territory of Ukraine, in addition to of the opposite States of Japanese Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia.”

This contains the fourteen Japanese European and Balkan states which have develop into members of NATO within the final twenty-four years: “Thus, along with the post-Soviet house, the Moscow initiative contains a variety of nations positioned between Western Europe and Russia — primarily Poland and the Baltic States, that are focused as a result of further forces of the North Atlantic Alliance have been deployed there as determined on the NATO summit in Warsaw in 2016.” In brief, “the Russian initiative may assist the Individuals to quietly depart Central and Japanese Europe,” in keeping with the headline of an article posted by the very official assume tank Russtrat. However it isn’t solely that: “the hyperlink established between the idea of ‘basic safety pursuits’ (which is launched for the primary time) and the vary of missiles obliges the USA to chorus from coming into our seas (primarily the Black Sea, but in addition these of the north: the Baltic, Barents, Okhotsk), and to cease the flights of American bombers (making an allowance for the actual vary of ‘Tomahawks’ of about 1800 km), virtually over the entire of Europe and most of Asia. The identical is true of Japan, for which acceptance of the Treaty clauses means the de-occupation and liquidation of American bases…”

To sum up, “the events exclude the deployment of nuclear weapons exterior the nationwide territory and return to the nationwide territory the weapons already deployed exterior the nationwide territory on the time of the entry into pressure of this Treaty.” Commentator Pyotr Akopov factors out: “Russia has now drawn its purple traces very clearly. [They imply] not solely the refusal to develop NATO to the East, but in addition, as said within the draft settlement with the alliance, the refusal “to conduct any navy exercise on the territory of Ukraine, in addition to different states of Japanese Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia”. He provides: “It’s clear that the USA will repatriate its nuclear weapons solely when the Anglo-Saxon undertaking of world domination lastly collapses, however it’s good to organize the bottom… If the West doesn’t wish to discover our purple traces (extra exactly, if it pretends to not wish to discover them), then it’s primarily his drawback, not ours.”

And what’s Russia providing in alternate for all of the concessions demanded of the West? Does it suggest to evacuate Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, Donbass, because it talks about returning to the scenario in 1997? Nothing of the kind. In return, it says it’s prepared… to commit itself to not threaten American safety. One remembers a joke throughout the Chilly Conflict: “What’s ours is ours, what’s yours is negotiable”.

In a phrase, Russia is demanding that NATO commit suicide, and that the USA be decreased to the function of a regional energy. Based on Vzglyad, America is the truth is invited “to face behind its Hercules columns (sic) and to maintain quiet on its ‘islands’. And which means that de facto (regardless of the reply to those proposals) the ‘American world’ as such for Russia has ceased to exist”. In consequence, Russia may have the higher hand in Europe. The nations of Western Europe are already taken with no consideration, with Moscow relying on the pool of collaborators that it has cultivated for years inside the European ruling elites: it has simply despatched them a powerful sign by appointing François Fillon as director of the petrochemical big Sibur. Disadvantaged of American help, the “Russophobic” nations that crystallize the resistance to Moscow’s hegemony will solely need to bow to the inevitable. Based on Russtrat, “After all, Poland and the Baltic nations will likely be sad. However they’ll in all probability be the one ones to oppose the American withdrawal from Central and Japanese Europe. In any case, the remainder of the ‘Younger Europeans’ are guided by the place of the ‘core’ of the European Union [Western European countries], and they don’t have secure anti-Russian complexes.”

This “core” “doesn’t share the Russophobic and anti-Russian sentiments [of the Central and Eastern European countries], is conscious of the inevitable American withdrawal from Central and Japanese Europe, and doesn’t wish to intrude. […] It’s higher for the USA to return to an settlement with Moscow, whereas offloading the issue of guaranteeing the safety of Central and Japanese Europe onto the ‘core’ of the European Union, France and Germany, that are in favor of the EU’s ‘strategic autonomy’” Ryabkov rightly factors out that the Russian initiative has “a robust potential for the formation of European safety.” On December 18, he clarified: “We suggest negotiations on a bilateral foundation with the USA. If we contain different nations, we’ll merely drown all of it in discuss and verbiage. I hope the Individuals don’t underestimate how a lot every little thing has modified, and never for the higher.”

Moscow is relying on the demoralizing impact on Europe of this Russian-American negotiation on its destiny from which it’s excluded and on the weak point of the American aspect within the absence of the European allies. The European Union wished to take part. However Moscow has adamantly imposed the bilateral format with Washington. Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov explains why: in his view, European nations are attempting to take part within the negotiations to be able to sabotage them. Nonetheless, “the prospect of agreements relies upon solely on the relations between Russia and the USA”. In his view, solely the US authorities management the flight of their bombers close to Russia’s borders and are additionally capable of deploy US missile techniques on the territory of Ukraine. Whereas European nations don’t possess weapons that might threaten Russia and will not be impartial within the deployment of those weapons on their territory.

The Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact is rarely distant within the minds of the Kremlin leaders. It is usually a query of standing, and a mirrored image of Putin’s obsession with erasing the collapse of the USSR. Thus Nezavisimaya Gazeta emphasizes that “Russia has acted because the inheritor to the USSR, the second superpower, which considers itself entitled to barter with the West on an equal footing.” By negotiating as an equal with the president of the USA Putin demonstrates on the similar time to the Russians that his place because the boss is acknowledged by the cursed Westerners. The sensation of debasement the Russians expertise of their hearts by submitting to despotism vanishes after they see the humiliation of the West: foreigners too are bowing all the way down to Putin. The regime’s propaganda is aware of how you can play these delicate chords.

Why this Russian ultimatum?

It is very important perceive what motivated Putin to launch this problem to Western nations. As all the time, Russian habits is dictated by a cautious evaluation of the “correlation of forces”, which, in keeping with Kremlin consultants, has simply tipped in favor of the anti-Western revisionist powers. After 20 years of preparation for conflict, the Russian place is taken into account to be stronger than ever, in keeping with the Russtrat assume tank: “Within the subsequent yr and a half, Russia will significantly change the steadiness of world energy. […] Russia’s present historic scenario is exclusive. The state has ready itself for the most important challenges which will come up below vital stress. Big reserves have been gathered, together with gold. Nationwide monetary and data infrastructure plans have been created and launched. Digitization has begun to embody your complete financial system, bringing it to a brand new degree of competitiveness. The growth of our personal industrial base, together with in extremely delicate high-tech areas, is continuing in leaps and bounds, the ‘expertise hole’ is closing. We have now overcome vital dependence within the space of meals safety. […] For the previous 5 years, the military has been the world’s chief. On this space, the ‘technological hole’ is in our favor and is barely widening… Furthermore, the explosion of planetary inflation is inflicting an power disaster, which makes the Europeans, for probably the most half, rather more accommodating and guidelines out a blockade of our power provides, WHATEVER WE DO.” If Russia and China coordinate their actions in opposition to Ukraine and Taiwan respectively, “every little thing will develop into a lot simpler for us. And for China too, from which we’ll divert consideration, which is able to free our fingers much more…” In brief, “Russia has restored its weight within the worldwide area to the purpose that it is ready to dictate its personal phrases within the shaping of worldwide safety.” As for “the decrepit empire of the Stars and Stripes, weakened by LGBT, BLM, and so on., it’s clear that it’s going to not survive a two-front conflict.”

On the opposite aspect the USA is dealing with an unprecedented disaster, with galloping inflation, provide shortages, a weak president, a society extra divided than ever. In consequence, in keeping with Irina Alksnis in RIA Novosti, “Russia in addition to China and different powers working to rework the world system […] have a window of alternative to speed up the eviction of the USA from the worldwide throne by growing the stress on them. Regardless that the weakening of the West has been happening for a while, the present crises point out that the method has moved to a qualitatively new degree, and it might subsequently be silly to not seize this chance. Particularly since, for our half, we have now accomplished our personal mechanisms and strategic instruments — various to these of the West — needed for the graceful functioning of the nationwide financial system and relations with different nations, whether or not it’s the manufacturing of products, financial laws, dissemination of data, and so on…”

Therefore the strategy of the Kremlin: “This isn’t a proposal for dialogue, however an ultimatum — a requirement for unconditional give up. The West has no selection however to lose face — except it stands proudly and goes to conflict with Russia. Judging by the way in which the West has begun to point out disarray on the opposite aspect, they’re properly conscious of this.” By threatening conflict, stresses RIA Novosti, “Moscow is emphasizing that Russia is prepared — morally, technically, and in each different sense of the phrase — for any growth of occasions. And the repute it has earned in earlier years confirms that the Russians will certainly be prepared to make use of pressure in the event that they deem it needed. It’s price recalling the phrases of Vladimir Putin, who said bluntly this summer time that if Russia sank the British destroyer accountable for a provocation off the coast of Crimea, there could be no main penalties: the outcry of the world press shouldn’t be counted as such […] No, this time the West pays with its personal fingers.”

Clearly, conflict will not be with out dangers, which, hopefully, the Russian navy are attempting to get throughout to Putin. Let’s return to the evaluation of navy skilled Konstantin Sivkov quoted above: since Russian typical forces are inadequate, “we will remedy the issue of neutralizing Europe and the USA solely by bodily eliminating them with our nuclear potential… The US and Europe will bodily disappear. There will likely be virtually no survivors. However we too will likely be destroyed. Until the destiny of Russia is healthier, as a result of we have now a big territory. Our opponents will be unable to destroy every little thing with nuclear strikes. Subsequently, the share of the surviving inhabitants will likely be increased. Nonetheless, Russia as a state might disappear after a large-scale nuclear conflict. It could fragment.”

However allow us to get again to the turning level of December 17. The set off for the Kremlin was the misguided coverage of the White Home which, after the debacle in Afghanistan, multiplied the variety of emissaries to Moscow this autumn, making the weak point of the USA much more apparent in Putin’s eyes: “Senior American officers have made frequent journeys to Moscow. The go to of CIA Director William Burns in November was the fourth go to of a senior White Home official because the Geneva assembly. It isn’t troublesome to guess that the aim of the CIA director’s private go to was by no means to make calls for about Ukraine, because the Western media tried to have itt, however to attempt to discover a compromise. Confronted with the collapse of worldwide authority because of the unsuccessful withdrawal from Afghanistan, the White Home was desirous to discover a cope with the Kremlin.”

On November 2, 2021, Burns did meet with Russian Federation Safety Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and, presumably, President Putin. He’s a favourite determine within the Kremlin: in 2005-2008, he was ambassador to Russia and “discovered widespread language with Putin. Sober and pragmatic, completely devoid of the messianic advanced attribute of Individuals, Burns has all the time advocated the refusal to develop NATO eastward.” Burns’ go to was interpreted in Moscow as a sign that the coverage of appeasement has prevailed in Washington and thus an encouragement to lift the stakes and “seize the strategic initiative”.

Mainly, we discover in these issues a Leninist substratum. The US and its European allies had been the haves of the worldwide order, the principle beneficiaries of the prevailing system, which introduced them privileges disproportionate to their contribution. Because of the disaster, their hegemony is on the decline. The previously “proletarian” states are prevailing, below Russian management. Right here once more Putin is replaying the Chilly Conflict, this time with a cheerful ending.

What to do?

Westerners should first understand the scenario as it’s, nevertheless disagreeable it might be for our democratic states extra accustomed to futile undertakings than to making sure their preservation. To do that, we should extricate ourselves from the Russian lie.

The primary lie issues Moscow’s alleged issues for Russian safety, the hazard that NATO missiles deployed within the border nations would signify for it. It is sufficient to learn the texts quoted above to see that the “safety” issues put ahead by Moscow are solely a smokescreen, that NATO itself is taken into account as a paper tiger, as right here implied by RIA: “The Atlanticists, regardless of all their appetites, won’t enter into open battle with Russia, they don’t need it and are afraid of it. Even affordable Anglo-Saxon strategists perceive that the West doesn’t have the energy to maintain Ukraine in its orbit for lengthy, the legal guidelines of Russian historical past (just like the legal guidelines of geopolitics) will all the time work.”

When Moscow talks about “safety” one should perceive “Russian domination” and “impunity”, as a result of that’s what it’s all about. Within the Kremlin’s view, every little thing it doesn’t management can jeopardize the regime. This may be seen in Russian home politics, the place the oases of freedom have been dried up one after the other over the past many years. What Moscow fears in Ukraine will not be a number of NATO instructors, however freedom. It desires a disarmed Ukraine in order that it may well intimidate the Kiev rebels and arrange a regime hated by its folks, thus completely depending on the Kremlin. Russia let Aliev launch an operation in opposition to Armenia exactly as a result of President Pachinian had been chosen by the Armenian folks in opposition to the Kremlin’s puppets. If Russia succeeds in driving the USA out of Europe, it can quickly really feel threatened by the freedoms of Western European nations, and below the pretext of guaranteeing its “safety”, it can show the identical willpower in our nation as in its personal to enslave the media, to eradicate democratic establishments and impartial events. Already as we speak, Lavrov is looking for the resignation of Stoltenberg, the Secretary of NATO, who, in keeping with him, “is lower than his process”.

One other phantasm that should be discarded is the concept of a effervescent civil society in Russia that might curb the bellicose aspirations of President Putin. Polls present that the brainwashing by the official propaganda could be very efficient: 50 % of Russians surveyed contemplate NATO and the West generally to be accountable for the present rigidity. 16 per cent blame Ukraine. The few remaining opponents very hardly ever criticize overseas coverage and hardly denounce the nauseating chauvinism emanating from Putin’s regime.

Lastly, allow us to point out the democratic sacred cow that should be sacrificed: absolutely the religion within the advantage of “dialogue”, which most Western leaders, from Florence Parly to Mario Draghi, proceed to advocate in relation to Moscow. However nothing is extra harmful than these summit exchanges, which, no matter one might say, inevitably feed in Russian ruling elites both paranoia or delusions of grandeur and intoxication with energy. If the West is agency, the Kremlin concludes that it desires to destroy Russia; if the West gives concessions, the Kremlin concludes that it’s weak and stress ought to be elevated.

Fairly often one of the best coverage with Russia is that of silence and distance: do nothing, say nothing and stand your floor. Clinging to dialogue in any respect prices, particularly when Moscow retains us at gunpoint like a madman holding a hostage, solely exhibits our weak point and encourages the Kremlin to escalate.

Above all, we should cease giving the Chilly Conflict the pejorative connotation that it doesn’t deserve. The French Minister of Protection Florence Parly has just lately declared that Western nations should keep away from escalation with Russia so as to not provoke a brand new Chilly Conflict. So long as we stay inside these conceptual frameworks, Russia will win. It ought to be remembered that the Chilly Conflict started in 1946, when the West stopped caving in to Stalin, after having deserted the nations of Central and Japanese Europe to him. It was because of the Chilly Conflict that the nations of Western Europe retained their freedom.

The teachings of 1946-7 are nonetheless related as we speak. The pioneers of the Chilly Conflict had been the British, who fashioned a Western bloc across the Anglo-French core and persuaded isolationist Individuals to remain in Europe. Within the spring of 1947, the French, Italian and Belgian governments expelled Communist ministers, conscious of the risk linked to Moscow’s fifth column in Europe. This clear willingness to withstand Stalin lastly persuaded Washington to commit itself to European safety. We may draw classes from this expertise as we speak, as an alternative of partaking in a infantile conflict with Britain. However to do this, we have now to study to face the information, to assume in political phrases, as an alternative of drifting rudderless in media passions and polls. In 1946-7 we knew that freedom was price dying for, one thing that’s clearly forgotten as we speak. After Munich in 1938, the West was ashamed to have deserted Czechoslovakia into Hitler’s clutches. At this time we’re cowardly letting down Ukraine, however we don’t even notice our dishonor, nor the hazard of giving in to an aggressor. We’re just like the Byzantines who had been discussing the intercourse of angels whereas the Ottoman forces had been destroying the town partitions.