Will there be a new war?

Within the worldwide group there’s a rising speak of a brand new assault from Russia and Belarus on Ukraine. Up to now, a minimum of 92 000 Russian troops are massed on Ukraine’s borders. There are even rumors that it would occur in January or early February, when the Polesye marshes are lined with ice. That is the shortest path to Kyiv from the north.

NATO intelligence companies have been the primary to speak about it, whereas Ukraine solely later accepted the conclusions of its Western allies. One after the other, Western international locations are establishing cellular formations that may be deployed in Ukraine inside 48 to 72 hours if needed. One after the other, ships carrying armaments arrive within the port of Odessa. NATO’s Secretary Common and the leaders of the key Alliance international locations are saying emphatically that they won’t go away Ukraine at risk. And I’m positive they’re proper. If warfare breaks out, it is going to be a brand new version of the Korean Battle of 1949-53. However as an alternative of a Europe destroyed by six years of warfare and a war-weary America, it is going to be the NATO international locations that produce half the world’s GDP that can defend democracy. And they won’t be coping with Pink China and the USSR surrounded by its European satellites, however with a weak Russian Federation that produces 2% of the world’s GDP. China is not going to ship its 2 million “volunteers” to the Donbass this time, because it did in Korea.

If the warfare begins, it should quickly finish, together with Putin’s and Lukashenko’s regimes. These aggressive neo-Bolshevik forces will drown within the Polesye swamps or shall be dispersed within the steppes of the Azov area. The result of the warfare is apparent.

However is that this end result apparent to the Kremlin? I believe so. And so there shall be no warfare. Just like the migrant disaster on the Polish border, that is an try by Russia to revive its fame as a powerful and harmful actor with whom one has to barter and keep away from confrontation. Battle will destroy Putin’s regime, whereas negotiations with Biden, Johnson and different distinguished leaders of the democratic world will strengthen it. That is precisely what the Kremlin needs.

Nonetheless, one by no means swims in the identical river twice. The waters of the Geneva assembly final June have run out. Any more, the West will solely speak to Lukashenko and his boss from a place of energy: sanctions, strengthening Ukraine’s protection capability, assist for NATO’s border members (Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia).

In Geneva, Biden gave Putin a chance to come back to his senses. He didn’t. He now has a alternative between a fast loss of life within the trenches of the Ukrainian border area and a sluggish loss of life below sanctions and isolation within the worldwide group. Figuring out Putin’s psychological profile, I’m positive he’ll select the second path within the hope that one thing will crack someplace within the West. So there shall be no warfare, however we should be ready for it. If we don’t put together for the warfare, it should definitely begin, as in 2014.

Translated from Russian by Desk Russie

Andrey Zubov on Fb

Printed with permission of the writer.