Remarks (in progress) by Gabriela Ramos,
G20 Sherpa & Chief of Employees, OECD
Gaidar Discussion board 2013, Moscow, 16 – 19 January 2013
Pricey Ksenia, expensive Sergei,
Girls and Gents,
It’s a pleasure and an honour for me to be right here in Moscow right now for the Gaidar Discussion board, to share OECD evaluation on the G20’s solutions to international challenges and on the function the Russian Federation can play herein as its Chairman. I consider that by means of its 50 years of expertise of world financial governance – in any case, we’ve got performed an integral half within the international economic system since our creation! – the OECD has a privileged standpoint on a very powerful steps ahead.
1. What’s the G20 and what does it imply for Russia to tackle its chairmanship?
The Russian Federation has simply taken over the chairmanship of the G20, at present and likely probably the most influential worldwide discussion board coping with international financial challenges. This isn’t by likelihood that the G20 has been designated as “the premier discussion board for financial cooperation” by Leaders in Pittsburgh in September 2009. It’s certainly the one discussion board the place international financial heavyweights from each the developed and the rising world – and them solely (which is making consensus simpler to attain) – are sitting collectively on an equal footing to debate international financial insurance policies and challenges. Representing 80% of world GDP, the G20 has doubtlessly the clout and firepower to remodel durably and profoundly the world economic system.
By presiding over what might be seen as a “steering committee” of the world economic system, by organising its work and driving its agenda, Russia is taking up a doubtlessly very influential place. Little doubt that this might be a supply of worldwide status and affect for Russia. By the central function it’ll play additionally within the G20 course of in 2013, Russia can have an unparalleled alternative for peer studying with different members of the group in addition to with worldwide organisations and with civil society that concerned in or related to the G20.
2. The function of the G20 in addressing key international financial challenges & the relevance of Russian priorities
What has been G20’s observe file to date?
Let’s acknowledge that selections made by the G20 have been key to the steadiness of the worldwide economic system on the top of the disaster and to avoiding an outright collapse of the worldwide monetary system – as an example by endorsing the most important internationally-coordinated stimulus bundle in historical past on the G20 London Summit; by committing to maintain markets open; or by launching a significant overhaul of the worldwide monetary and prudential regulation framework. The G20 has additionally achieved concrete progress in domains akin to tax transparency and the struggle towards tax heavens because of the peer evaluation course of carried out within the International Discussion board; we will additionally point out the reform of the worldwide monetary structure or the design of mechanisms to stem meals value volatility (AMIS).
Nevertheless it has nonetheless a protracted approach to go. As I mentioned, the G20 has been instrumental in avoiding a collapse of the world economic system in 2008-2009. Nevertheless it has been far much less efficient at constructing the blocks of a powerful, sustainable and balanced restoration.
What are the challenges confronted by the G20 going ahead?
Firstly, within the short-run, by means of collective motion and enhanced coverage coordination, the G20 should make a decisive contribution to fixing the financial and monetary disaster and guarantee a powerful and sustainable restoration based mostly on new and stable sources of development. There are a number of dimensions and features to this crucial:
i) Creating the situations for an upside development situation
First, it’s completely important that the G20 creates the situations for an upside development situation, particularly at a juncture the place the worldwide economic system is dealing with – once more! – robust headwinds and grappling with draw back dangers:
- the fiscal cliff within the US has been overcome however the fiscal state of affairs within the US stays unsustainable;
- poisonous feed-back loops between the banking sector and sovereign debt persist within the euro-area that can stay in or close to recession into effectively 2013;
- reform fatigue and social resistance have gotten more and more seen in a lot of G20 nations.
That is what makes Russia’s willingness to refocus the agenda of the G20 in direction of the target of re-igniting international development so related and well timed.
To attain this goal, we, on the OECD, consider that G20 nations want bold and wide-ranging financial reforms on the supply-side.
- A number of nations within the Group of 20, particularly in Europe (together with Germany itself) posted sluggish development of productiveness over the previous decade that was inadequate in most of them (with the notable exception of Germany) to maintain up with rising unit labour prices. Because of this, they misplaced competitiveness, resulting in financial divergence throughout the euro-area and to widening intra-euro-area imbalances. These nations want a full-fledged and complete competitiveness programme, starting from strengthening competitors in community industries and decreasing obstacles to overseas possession and funding; to decreasing restrictions on labour mobility and labour market dualism, reforming the wage bargaining system to convey pattern in unit labour price in step with productiveness, or bettering labour pressure participation. It refers back to the enchancment in public sector effectivity and to the reform of the tax construction to make it extra labour-friendly.
That is exactly the type of reform agenda which the OECD is at present crafting in partnership with a few of the European members of this Group, akin to Italy, Spain or Portugal. Pay-offs are doubtlessly excessive, equal to a rise of 0.5% to 1% per yr relying on how thorough, complete and effectively sequenced the reforms are.
- Even one of the best performers throughout the Group, superior [Germany, Australia, Korea, Canada] and rising market economies [China, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey] alike, should do their “homework” – so to talk – on the supply-side. Their economies are affected by deficiencies – lack of innovation and inefficient schooling system for some; inadequate diversification and State’s extreme function within the economic system in some others; heavy regulation and inadequate competitors in sure sectors akin to providers for many of them, and so forth.. These are bottlenecks which can be constraining development and/or impeding the rebalancing towards home demand.
International locations have already made bold financial coverage commitments– usually recognized with the assistance and assist of the OECD – within the context of earlier G20 Leaders’ Summits, notably in Cannes and Los Cabos. Now’s the time to ship on them! The OECD will assist the Russian presidency and members of the G20 to craft a brand new Saint Petersburg Motion and to trace the supply of current commitments.
But, it’s illusive to consider that we are going to obtain this upside situation with out making the monetary sector work for and finance the actual economic system once more.
This isn’t a simple problem, as banks have been requested to sq. the circle by concurrently deleveraging, decreasing non-performing loans, assembly new laws and rebuilding their capital base… whereas on the similar time persevering with to finance the actual economic system!
Definitely, the G20 has developed a full-fledge and spectacular monetary regulatory agenda based mostly on the wonderful work performed by the FSB. However we’d like maybe a extra sensible and down-to-earth strategy to monetary regulation, we’d like specifically:
- to additional examine the nexus between monetary regulation – and its reform – on the one hand and development then again;
- to trace carefully how a lot banks are resuming regular charges of lending, and the way a lot work there nonetheless to be performed for them to carry out this fundamental obligation;
- to search out methods to forestall dangerous deleveraging (banks shrinking their stability sheet by decreasing credit score exercise) and to elicit good (recapitalisation) deleveraging;
- to handle the unfinished agenda of monetary regulation: as an example, we consider – and we’re not alone on this – that the usual Basel Tier 1 ratio captures the dangers taken by banks on their balance-sheets somewhat imperfectly.
For the monetary sector and banks to play once more their function as conveyor belts of the actual economic system, it is very important make our banks genuinely safer by means of correct recapitalization. It is a precondition for re-instilling confidence within the banking sector, break the feed-back loop between sovereign debt and banks solvency, and restore the interbank market. The OECD has put revolutionary proposals on the desk on this respect :
- We’re advocating a quite simple and highly effective measure of the adequacy of financial institution’s capital: an unweighted leverage ratio of 5% that might complement the usual Basel Tier 1 ratio. By this measure, an additional USD700bn can be required to make sure an satisfactory recapitalization of the banking sector in OECD nations.
- We’re additionally making the case for international banks to maneuver extra forcefully in direction of separation of business banking from large-scale and complicated securities companies and to refocus their enterprise fashions in direction of onto the financing of the actual economic system. This strategy has been confirmed by a number of experiences (Vickers, likanen, Volker) and is being carried out in a number of nations of the G20.
We have to reactivate conventional sources of financing but in addition to faucet new sources of finance for funding, long run funding akin to infrastructure specifically. The OECD will present the Russian presidency with particular inputs and solutions associated to the potential function of institutional buyers – and their USD71Tr. belongings beneath administration – on this area. At the moment certainly, lower than 1% of pension fund belongings are allotted on to such infrastructure initiatives! And plenty of obstacles to rising such allocations stay – e.g. the illiquid nature of infrastructure belongings, the dearth of satisfactory financing automobiles or the existence of regulatory impediments. So we have to take a look at find out how to facilitate this, by governments adopting nationwide infrastructure methods, checking on regulatory obstacles, and improvement of acceptable monetary automobiles.
A G20 roadmap setting out the situations conducive to an elevated involvement of institutional buyers within the financing of long run funding (together with infrastructure) may very well be a really related deliverable for the G20 to contemplate.
In any case, this can be very related that Russia recognized financing for funding as one in all its priorities as it’ll give us the chance to look deeper into these problems with the financing of the economic system at a juncture the place funding, that has declined considerably after the disaster, will not be recovering and is holding the restoration again.
There are a few different important points we have to contemplate when trying on the situations for an upside development situation:
- No have to say that on the present juncture, the worldwide economic system would badly want a “free stimulus” from extra commerce liberalization. This goal appears far-fetched proper now. However whereas multilateral commerce negotiations are at a stalemate, the OECD, collectively with WTO, is taking a recent take a look at the best way worldwide commerce is being organized and is evolving, by means of the lens of International Worth Chains. The emergence of world worth chains, i.e. the ever vital cross-border fragmentation of manufacturing chains and processes, is definitely making the case a extra bold commerce and funding agenda. It reveals as an example that success in worldwide markets now relies upon as a lot on the capability to import environment friendly inputs as on the capability to export. Take my nation as an example: Mexico. As a part of the emergence of GVCs, Mexico has additionally change into an vital location for ultimate meeting. Within the electronics and automotive industries, elements and elements are imported primarily from the US and assembled into ultimate merchandise that are then exported again to the US. As a consequence, Mexico’s exports and imports have elevated by greater than 700% between 1990 and 2010, reaching virtually 700 USD billion in 2011! In different phrases, export efficiency suffers when nations levy tariffs on imported intermediates or prohibit entry to imports. It is a good illustration of the self-defeating pressure of protectionism. By being on the forefront of creating new and higher proof on GVCs and its corollary – Commerce in Worth-Added – the OECD is hopefully contributing to deconstruct sure myths about worldwide commerce and funding and can steadily construct the blocks of a renewed momentum in worldwide commerce discussions.
- We equally want new to safe authorities revenues at a time when many nations are going by means of a specifically harsh and painful section of fiscal consolidation. Tax base erosion constitutes a severe threat on this regard: this can be a threat to tax revenues, but in addition to tax sovereignty and tax equity for OECD member nations and non-members alike. There are various methods by which home tax bases might be eroded, however a big supply of base erosion is revenue shifting by multinational enterprises. This downside of revenue shifting is illustrated by figures on FDI: Do you know as an example that in 2010 Barbados, Bermuda and the British Virgin Islands obtained extra FDIs (mixed 5.11% of world FDIs) than Germany (4.77%) or Japan (3.76%)?! This offers you an impressionist measure of the magnitude of revenue shifting by MNE. There’s clearly a tax compliance problem, as evidenced by plenty of excessive profile instances. However extra basically, revenue sharing is evidencing that home guidelines for worldwide taxation and internationally agreed requirements are nonetheless grounded in an financial surroundings characterised by a decrease diploma of financial integration throughout borders – they originated with ideas developed by the League of Nations within the 1920’s! – somewhat than right now’s surroundings. The latter is characterised by international taxpayers akin to multinational enterprises, by the rising significance of mental property as a dematerialized value-driver, and by fixed developments of knowledge and communication applied sciences that make it simpler for corporations to shift revenue from one jurisdiction to the opposite and take advantage of tax arbitrage. Because of this the OECD has embarked, with the assist of G20 members, on a complete and really bold work programme referred to as BEPS (Base Erosion and Revenue Shfting) aimed toward revisiting guidelines of worldwide taxation akin to double-taxation or switch pricing. We are going to report often to the G20 on progress made in creating this undertaking and can provide you with concrete suggestions within the area of worldwide taxation.
ii) Addressing long run challenges
Past the fast and most urgent problem represented by the disaster, the G20 additionally wants to handle deep, international, structural and systemic challenges that can have a powerful bearing on the steadiness of our world over the medium to long run. In different phrases, the G20 should be cautious to engineer a restoration that can make our economies and societies fairer and cleaner as an alternative of prolonging present unsustainable social and environmental tendencies:
- First, the G20 wants to handle the problem of making jobs, combating unemployment – youth unemployment specifically – in addition to rising inequalities. Youth unemployment which is historically 2 to three instances increased than general inhabitants unemployment in most G20 nations has grown even quicker within the disaster. Additionally, revenue inequality in OECD nations is at its highest within the half a century. The typical revenue of the richest 10% of the inhabitants is about 9 instances that of the poorest 10% throughout the OECD, which is seven instances greater than 25 years in the past. That is creating social despair, bringing about reform fatigue and that is doubtlessly conducive to political instability and extremism.
- We equally want additionally to cease our collision course with nature. The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 initiatives that, with out fast motion, by 2050 we are going to see a 50% improve in greenhouse gasoline emissions, with a disastrous affect on the well-being of individuals worldwide, akin to a doubling of untimely deaths from publicity to air air pollution; and an additional 10% decline in terrestrial biodiversity. On the similar time, we have to unleash the potential of inexperienced applied sciences and innovation as a brand new and sustainable driver of development. The G20 has already made progress on this area, beneath the management of the Mexican Presidency who made inexperienced development a precedence and a crosscutting problem of its agenda. The G20 can be effectively suggested to construct on this momentum.
The OECD has been actively contributing to the G20 agenda on these two fronts:
- Within the realm of labour, we supplied inputs for the preparation of the three G20 Labour and Employment Ministerial Conferences, highlighting good coverage practices, as an example on youth employment, drawing from our in depth coverage opinions and analyses.
- on inexperienced development, constructing on our internationally-recognized inexperienced development technique, we supplied suggestions to the G20 on mainstreaming Inexperienced Progress and Sustainable Growth Insurance policies into its Structural Reform Agenda of the G20; and we developed, with different IOs, a Toolkit of Coverage Choices to Assist Inclusive Inexperienced Progress in creating nations.
By and enormous, we all know what it takes to show confidence round and obtain an upside development situation. We want decisive coverage motion, we have to ship on our commitments. Nonetheless, realizing what must be performed doesn’t make it essentially simpler! Because of this the OECD stands prepared to help the G20 and the Russian authorities in creating a extra concrete, operational, and impressive agenda of coverage reforms forward of the Saint Petersburg Summit.